Boris and a Path to Triumph

I am increasingly irritated (and God knows it does not take much) by the speculation about a snap general election and the claim that Parliament can stop No Deal. It simply isn’t so; at the very least Parliament needs to act now to implement a further referendum if it wants to stop No Deal.

Speculation seems to centre on the idea that no PM would want to take responsibility for the difficulties that No Deal would bring. The truth is that Boris, as our new PM, can have the best of all worlds – his cake and eat it.

The first step is getting to No Deal. We can safely assume that attempts to renegotiate fail or will be said to have failed. By then agreeing with his Remainer colleagues to ask the EU for an extension (but telling the ERG that he doesn’t really mean it), he will sweep away much of the opposition to No Deal in the Commons. All he needs is to reduce that opposition so that there is no new and effective formal barrier to No Deal (arguably, it is already too late for effective barriers to No Deal anyway). When asked by the EU to explain the purpose of the extension which he has requested, he will explain that it is to allow for further negotiations – so that he can get the deal he wants. On that basis, the EU leaders (or least one of them – possibly the one he called a turd), will refuse. Cue No Deal Brexit by automatic operation of law. But, crucially, this will be said to be a No Deal that wasn’t the fault of Boris but was the product of an EU plot to do Great Britain down.

It is then that Boris will call an election. He can get extra points by painting this as a democratic necessity as the people should get to choose the PM, explaining the delay as being in the national interest because of the Brexit crisis.

Boris will get away with avoiding the opprobrium arising from any No Deal negativity. He can do this partly because the awful effects of No Deal will take a while to become clear and partly because the immediate effects have been exaggerated by some. The predictions of some sort of dystopian future will be seized upon no matter how dubious the source and made to sound like they come from HM Treasury. (That’s not a prediction. It follows the Brexit playbook, implemented on numerous occasions since the referendum.) The famous slogan ‘you never had it so good’ will be replaced with ‘it’s nowhere near as bad as they said’. More to the point, it will be made clear that it is all the EU’s fault anyway – we asked for an extension and they refused it. Patriots will vote Boris.

Following a No Deal exit, the Brexit Party voters in a general election will all vote Boris. The threat from the Lib Dems will be greatly reduced as, even for an arch-Remainer like me, there is a big difference between Remain and Rejoin; while I might like the Rejoin idea, the numbers would be well down (eg, we’d be told that we’d have to ditch the pound and we would genuinely lose the rebate). Labour has been damaged by its Brexit shilly-shallying and, well, Corbyn and will lose ground. Lib Dem and Green will divi up the rest of the votes but each will be so fragmented that, in a FPTP system, Boris will have a working majority. A triumph, for him not the UK.

Freed of the DUP shackles, he can go back to the EU and agree a deal. It will probably be very like the Theresa May deal (although a little bit worse) but, with the press behind him and some of the money already gone, it can be made to sound much better. Boris triumphant again.

Easy, peasy. It gives me no pleasure to say so but I can’t see how Boris can lose from here.